Problem of the Day: Alice and Bob agree to meet but both forget the exact time. Each person arrives at the cafeteria u.a.r between 12 pm and 1 pm, and is willing to wait for 10 minutes. What is the probability that they meet?
Denote the arrival time , and denote order statistics . So the time interval
1 Beta Distribution
In the last note we introduced Beta distribution in this example. Now we give a formal definiton.
Beta Distribution
For , , . (Note: .) Denote , then . The p.d.f. of is
Here Gamma function isFor , . .
can take quite different shapes for different value.
Generalization: . are independent. Then with p.d.f
2 Order Statistics
Order Statistics
is a list of real numbers. The order statistics of is a permutation of the list s.t. .
If are distinct, is the th smallest element in .
2.1 Distribution of Order Statistics
Suppose .
Claim
The p.d.f of is given by
Proof
Take derivative:
Similarly,
Claim
The p.d.f of is given by
Claim
The p.d.f of is
Proof
The event corresponds to at least of fall in . Then Take derivative,
However, there is a more probabilistic way to prove this.
The leading contribution to is given by the following event: points falling in , points falling in . The probability isHere is a small interval, so we can do the approximation.
Denote , and . are the gaps between order statistics. Then
RHS is the joint density of , where . So
The gaps are not independent, but is exchangeable. So , .